Steady Hands in Shifting Markets: Your 2025 Investment Outlook
We’re pleased to introduce Kirsten Halpin as the Director of Investments for Alaska Wealth Advisors. Kirsten joins us from her tenure at APCM, where she served as Director of Operations, and supported the Alaska Wealth Advisors team for many years. She is one of the most highly credentialed investment professionals in the state—holding Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA®), Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA®), and Financial Risk Manager (FRM) designations, demonstrating her extensive knowledge and rigorous training in investment analysis, portfolio management, and risk management. With Kirsten’s deep institutional knowledge, your advisors’ experience in financial planning, and our strong partnership with APCM, we believe it’s a winning combination for our clients.
In the market outlook below, Kirsten shares key insights for investors, including:
- The importance of a diversified portfolio in navigating various market conditions.
- The need for professional management of both opportunities and risks.
- The value of proactive financial planning—reach out if your circumstances have changed.
Our Investment Philosophy
At Alaska Wealth Advisors, we believe that a disciplined process is the foundation of sound investing. A key part of our approach is conducting an annual outlook- a deliberate review that helps us identify opportunities and navigate uncertainty with confidence. While our focus remains on long-term success, assessing the near-term landscape allows us to adapt thoughtfully rather than react impulsively to market fluctuations.
Given today’s ever-changing headlines, uncertainty may be the only constant, but our commitment to guiding you through it remains steadfast. In this update, we share key takeaways from our outlook and what it means for your investments.
Market Expectations for 2025
Stocks: Positioned for Gains but Expect Volatility
Stocks have fundamental support for continued positive returns, though volatility is likely to remain elevated. Historically, economic stability and earnings momentum are among the strongest indicators of one-year market returns—both of which currently point to a third consecutive year of growth. However, with current valuations leaving less room for markets to absorb new developments, policy risks and unforeseen events could pose headwinds. We are closely monitoring policy proposals from the new administration, as finalized measures will have a greater impact than rhetoric.
Bonds: Source of Return and Stability
Bonds are well-positioned to contribute meaningfully to both returns and portfolio stability. The broad U.S. bond market currently offers a yield of 4.9%—one of the highest levels seen in nearly two decades. Beyond providing income, bonds serve as a critical buffer against stock market declines. If an economic slowdown prompts a Federal Reserve policy response, bonds could see an estimated 11% total return for every 1% decline in interest rates.1
Alternatives: Key Diversifiers for Inflation Protection
Our portfolios extend beyond traditional stocks and bonds, incorporating meaningful allocations to real assets and diversification strategies to enhance resilience. Many proposed policy changes could have inflationary side effects. While we do not anticipate a repeat of 2022, given key differences in market pricing—particularly in bonds—we maintain a balanced risk-return approach to safeguard and grow wealth over the long term.
How We’re Positioning Portfolios
In response to this outlook, we want to highlight two key aspects of our disciplined investment process that are particularly valuable for managing both returns and market uncertainty:
- Quarterly Repositioning
As part of our trading program, we systematically rebalance portfolios, allowing us to lock in gains by trimming top-performing assets and reallocating to timely opportunities. Most recently, we added a new alternatives fund focused on trading strategies that are not correlated with traditional stocks and bonds.
- Proactive Communication & Ongoing Reviews
As your fiduciary partner, you can delegate investment management to us with confidence. Should market conditions necessitate a material change in your investment strategy, we are prepared to act. However, we can only plan effectively with up-to-date information. Our process includes regular check-ins to ensure your investments remain aligned with your financial goals. If your circumstances change between meetings, please reach out. With our team-based structure, there is always someone available who understands your financial plan and investment strategy.
This is a glimpse into our 2025 market outlook and the steps we’re taking to prepare for the years ahead. If you’d like a deeper dive into the details, we’re happy to share our full outlook—simply contact your advisory team. Whether you prefer in-depth analysis or high-level insights, we’re here to ensure you feel informed, confident, and supported every step of the way.
Kirsten Halpin, CFA®, CAIA®, FRM
Director of Investments
1 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Alaska Wealth Advisors, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Alaska Wealth Advisors’ investment advisory services can be found in its Form ADV Part 2 and/or Form CRS, both of which are available upon request.
Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA®) are licensed by the CFA® Institute to use the CFA® mark. CFA® certification requirements: Hold a bachelor’s degree from an accredited institution or have equivalent education or work experience, successful completion of all three exam levels of the CFA® Program, have 48 months of acceptable professional work experience in the investment decision-making process, fulfill society requirements, which vary by society. Unless you are upgrading from affiliate membership, all societies require two sponsor statements as part of each application; these are submitted online by your sponsors.
The Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA®) designation is a professional designation offered by the CAIA Association. CAIA designation is the globally-recognized credential for professionals managing, analyzing, distributing, or regulating alternative investments. Candidates must complete a course of study and pass two examinations. CAIA designees are required to maintain membership in the CAIA Association and adhere to professional and ethical standards.
Financial Risk Manager (FRM) is a professional designation issued by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). The GARP FRM accreditation is a certification for financial risk professionals dealing in financial markets. To earn the FRM certification, candidates must pass two exams and also work two years in the field of risk management.
